5G Subs Growing at Record Pace: Ericsson Mobility Report

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DISH’s 5G network is in its early days, AT&T and Verizon won’t have mid-band spectrum built out until 2023, T-Mobile is going great guns at low-band and mid-band but its millimeter wave coverage — the icing on the spectrum layer cake — is thin. Still, Ericsson projects that 5G mobile subscriptions are growing at a record pace and will exceed 580 million globally by the end of 2021, driven by an estimated one million new 5G mobile subscriptions every day.

The forecast in the latest Ericsson Mobility Report projects 5G will be the fastest adopted mobile generation in history with 3.5 billion subscriptions and 60 percent population coverage by the end of 2026. That said, the pace of adoption varies widely by region, with China, North America and the Middle East leading the way. Europe is lagging. Northeast Asia is expected to account for the largest share of 5G subscriptions by 2026, with an estimated 1.4 billion 5G subscriptions.

“5G is expected to surpass a billion subscriptions two years ahead of the 4G LTE timeline for the same milestone,” the report said. “Key factors behind that include China’s earlier commitment to 5G and the earlier availability and increasing affordability of commercial 5G devices.” The number of 5G smartphones currently tops 300.

This commercial 5G momentum will continue in coming years, spurred by the enhanced role of connectivity as a key component of post-COVID-19 economic recovery, according to Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson. North American and Middle East markets are expected to account for the highest 5G subscription penetration, with 5G mobile subscriptions comprising 84 percent and 73 percent of all regional mobile subscriptions, respectively.

“We are in the next phase of 5G, with accelerating roll-outs and coverage expansion in pioneer markets such as China, the USA and South Korea,” said Jejdling. “Now is the time for advanced use cases to start materializing and deliver on the promise of 5G. Businesses and societies are also preparing for a post-pandemic world, with 5G-powered digitalization playing a critical role.”

With the COVID-19 pandemic increasing the importance of reliable, high-speed mobile broadband connectivity, and 5G communications service providers (CSPs) have targeted this market for fixed wireless access (FWA), according to the report. “Almost nine out of ten CSPs that have launched 5G also have an FWA offering (4G and/or 5G), even in markets with high fiber penetration. This is needed to accommodate increasing FWA traffic, which the report forecasts to grow by a factor of seven to reach 64 exabytes in 2026,” the report said.

The forecast also highlights massive IoT technology (NB-IoT and Cat-M) connections, which it said will increase by almost 80 percent during 2021, reaching nearly 330 million connections. In 2026, these technologies are forecast to comprise 46 percent of all cellular IoT connections. 

By J. Sharpe Smith, Inside Towers Technology Editor

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