The Open RAN trend continued in 2022, and expectations have been revised upward to reflect the higher baseline, supported by stronger-than-expected O-RAN progress in North America, according to a report by Dell’Oro Group. Open RAN is now projected to account for 15-to-20 percent of global RAN by 2027.
But Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and Analyst at the Dell’Oro Group, tempered his enthusiasm. “Even with the higher starting point, it is more salient than ever to factor in the vastly different adoption curves across the greenfields, the leading brownfields in North America and Asia Pacific, and the rest of the world,” Pongratz said.
The risks faced by Open RAN remain “broadly balanced,” according to the report. Although Open RAN is gaining in popularity, it appears to be having a minimal impact on the overall RAN supplier dynamics.
Dell’Oro projects the Asia Pacific and North America regions to be the primary growth vehicles in the next five years, while the trend is downward in the Middle East & Africa, Caribbean and Latin America, and parts of the Asia Pacific. After a slow start, European Open RAN revenues are expected to top $1 billion by 2027.
“Open RAN macros are expected to drive the lion’s share of the O-RAN capex, accounting for around 90 percent of the revenues throughout the forecast period,” the report reads.
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