Letter From The Editor: “What’s Past is Prologue”

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Flipping a coin here. Heads: I cover 2018, its hits and misses and the ‘didn’t-see-THAT-comin’s.’ Tails: I look ahead to the unmarred, still-in-the-wrapper, factory-fresh smelling year ahead.

Aaand it’s tails. Which is a good thing because I’m no prognosticator. I’ve had enough stock brokers and sports bookies in my life make me pay dearly for the knowledge that their crystal ball carries no more accuracy than the coin I just flipped.  But I’ll go out on a limb here and say 2019 has the potential to be good, as all market metrics are running hot, straight and normal.  The pipeline is packed, re-packed in fact, with work. The FCC has done some downfield blocking so the race to the deployment goal line will have a few fewer tacklers. Yes sir, barring natural catastrophes, mergers, political upheaval and economic spasm attacks, 2019 should go smooth as silk.  What could happen, right?

Let’s get back to the year we knew.

If there was an overriding wind at the market’s back this year, I’d say it was blowing from an easterly direction. More specifically from D.C. and the tower-climbing, in-house fighting, net neutrality neutralizing band of brothers and sisters at the FCC.  Despite the “Fight Club” atmosphere of many a session (the media thanks you for that BTW), they managed to make the tower industry’s job easier in reducing future barriers and costs to building infrastructure. (Accelerating Wireless Broadband Deployment by Removing Barriers to Infrastructure Investment”)

While the repack and FirstNet kept the demand fires burning, all was not a peaceful picture of an industry just trying to get along. In late 2017, AT&T, Verizon and Tillman made a dramatic entrance that not only put the major towercos on notice with price-slashing offers but made them challenge the allegiance of contractors in 2018. (American Tower Puts Vendors on Notice)

Inside Towers led some ground-breaking news coverage concerning the major players, the big towercos and carriers, who drew the wrath of contractors by delaying payments for work received by 90-to-120 days. NATE Executive director Todd Schlekeway called it “one of the most pressing issues affecting the companies who have boots on the ground.” The net effect, the contactors say, is 5G will be a little bit delayed while they wait for the check….that is, if they don’t go out of business first.  (The Check Is Not in the Mail)

We suffered through a whole year of merger head-bobbing, feinting and posturing with Sprint-T-Mobile that, if allowed, would have a significant impact on the valuations of the major towercos…who downplayed that effect magnificently. (Sprint and T-Mo Merger, If OK’ed, Will Affect Tower Market)

And to add some extra dynamics to an already roiling market, the industry was tested time and again by a few Acts of God that reminded everyone who the Boss is. Fire and rain, Old Testament style, kept emergency crews busy throughout the year; COLTs and COWs and drones were deployed throughout smoke-choked California forests and soggy coastlands.  (Carriers Work to Maintain, Restore Networks in CA Wildfires)

Can any and all of this happen again in 2019? Flip a coin.

By Jim Fryer, Managing Editor, Inside Towers 

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