Will Expectations Become Reality?  

Multiple reports from analysts predict that the second half of 2015 and early 2016 will see more wireless activity. Amir Rozwadowski of Barclays wrote, “While we expect carrier capex levels to remain tempered during 2Q, expectations for a reiteration of 2015 spending levels by all four major telco’s suggests improving trends should emerge beginning in the back half of the year.” In the story below, you’ll get Jonathan Schildkraut of Evercore ISI’s take. But will it actually happen? Rozwadowski noted that while each carrier has their own initiatives to focus on, the new spectrum and the densification projects will bode well for the industry as a whole. “In our view, 2016 activity levels could improve over 2015,” he wrote. The Barclays analysts also noted that price to adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) multiples are at or near levels last seen during the summer of 2013 (only 1-2x trough for American Tower and SBA). “Though we recognize that the sector is likely to remain out of favor until clarity around rate activity improves, our analysis suggest that against a backdrop of gradually improving fundamentals, current multiples being able to simply meet expectations should allow the industry to deliver healthy total returns over the next twelve months,” Rozwadowski wrote.