We keep hearing about the secular tailwinds that are driving the wireless infrastructure business. The June 2023 issue of the Ericsson Mobility Report does a nice job of quantifying those tailwinds. First and foremost, 5G deployments continue worldwide. EMR indicated there are now about 240 service providers around the world that have launched commercial 5G services. About 35 of those are deploying or have launched 5G Standalone. EMR points out that mobile network operators are moving ahead, albeit cautiously, to deploy 5G despite a weaker global economy and geopolitical uncertainties.
There were an estimated 8.3 billion global mobile subscribers at the end of 2022, with about 900 million of those on 5G. EMR projects that 5G subscriptions will reach 1.5 billion by the end 2023. Considering delayed spectrum auctions in several countries and continued difficult macroeconomic conditions, EMR forecasts that by the end of 2028, 5G global subscriptions will reach 4.6 billion, accounting for more than 50 percent of the projected 9.1 billion total mobile subscriptions.
5G uptake has been stronger than expected in North America which, at the end of 2022, accounted for 41 percent of all mobile subscribers in the region. In Northeast Asia, led by China, South Korea and Japan, the penetration was 30 percent, followed by the Gulf Cooperation Council countries at 18 percent and Western Europe at 13 percent. By 2028, EMR projects that North America will have the highest 5G penetration at 91 percent, followed by Western Europe which is expected to increase rapidly over the next five years to 88 percent.
Note that 4G subscriptions continue to increase and reached roughly 5.2 billion at the end of 1Q23. EMR indicates that figure will start declining in late 2023, and is expected to drop to around 3.8 billion by the end of 2028, as subscribers migrate to 5G.
EMR finds the most common 5G services that MNOs provide to consumers are enhanced mobile broadband, fixed wireless access, gaming, and some AR/VR-based services. These services are driving increased mobile data consumption. The monthly global average usage per smartphone is expected to exceed 20 Gb by the end of 2023 in the top 20 5G markets that include the U.S., and countries in Western Europe, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific regions. As a consequence, revenue for MNOs in the top 20 5G markets is rising at low- to mid-single digit annual rates.
Interestingly, more than 100 MNOs now offer 5G FWA services. Certainly, much has been made of what T-Mobile and Verizon have achieved in the U.S. but 5G FWA deployments are advancing in Norway, Oman, India, and Japan. In fact, the service provider in Norway has become the first in Europe to shut down its copper DSL network and replace 51,000 of its DSL connections with FWA services. Such developments could play out in other developed markets that have large legacy copper networks.
By John Celentano, Inside Towers Business Editor
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