If any message resonated from the dais at Connect (X) when the major towercos gathered, it was one worthy of Alfred E. Newman’s classic, ‘What, me worry?’ Topics like the prospect of a merger between major carriers, the sunsetting of macro towers and the shortage of work crews all presented by WIA CEO Jonathan Adelstein, drew more of a shrug than a well-crafted statement of cautious optimism from Crown’s CEO Jay Brown, SBA’s head honcho Jeff Stoops, American Tower VP Rich Rossi, Vertical Bridge’s CEO Alex Gellman and David E. Weisman, CEO of InSite Wireless.
One exception was Alex Gellman of Vertical Bridge who forsees short term pain followed by long term gain, if Sprint and T-Mo get the regulators’ blessing.
“It will kill 25,000 sites but will add sites eventually. We’re long term bullish,” Gellman said “but going from four sites to three will have an impact in the short term.”
SBA’s Stoops seemed to welcome the merger scenario. “You will see a big uptick in new equipment adds,” he said, “it will usher in a whole new world of cap-x spending. The merged company would have less spectrum which they have to satisfy with more infrastructure.”
Crown’s CEO took the long view: “Twenty years ago we had 1.2 tenants per tower,” Brown said. “Now there’s 2.5 per. We will look back,” he said, “and see it’s irrelevant how many carriers were in the market.”
When Adelstein tentatively asked about the role of macro towers in a micro future, the panel was quick to reaffirm the place of big steel in the infrastructure cosmos. “We don’t use small cells as substitution for macros,” Brown said. “We believe over time they will become hubs as we see a massive increase in the number of small cells.”
Stoops added that macros are “a critical part of 5G going forward. The cannibalization of macros [by new technologies] is long dead and put to bed.” Gellman alluded to “a macro renaissance” going on with carriers like T-Mobile still building out infrastructure. American’s Rich Rossi, said “the delivery mechanism for 5G is going to be macro sites and will be a big part of the new technology.”
Who will do all of this work, Adelstein asked, alluding to analysts’ frets over a tightening market for tech crews.
Stoops said the fears were centered around the 600 MHz work being done on tall towers that required a different skill set and cited SBA’s in-house training programs that made labor a non-issue. Brown claimed a vigorous recruiting effort with the college crowd and seeing young recruits possessing “skill sets that are transferable.”
Overall market growth, particularly in small cells in the next twenty years, according to Brown, may surpass the growth macro towers had over the last twenty years. “We are just in the top of the first inning,” he said.
By Jim Fryer, Managing Editor, Inside Towers
May 24, 2018
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