For the past six months, DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) has been evaluating 800 MHz spectrum for use in its 5G network, Inside Towers reported. With satisfactory performance, DISH was supposed to acquire the 800 MHz licenses from T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) by August 30, as part of an agreement with the Department of Justice following the T-Mobile/Sprint merger. The price tag is roughly $3.5 billion.
Low band spectrum is particularly important for DISH to meet FCC-mandated population coverage objectives as the fourth national MNO.The company is already using 600 MHz and 700 MHz for its initial 5G deployments. In June, the company met its second coverage bogey of 70 percent of the U.S. population, or roughly 200 million people, Inside Towers reported. The third and final hurdle is, by June 2025, 75 percent coverage of the 406 Partial Economic Areas (PEAs) that account for roughly 99 percent of the total U.S. population. Despite the narrow 13.5 MHz bandwidth, 800 MHz has very good wide area propagation characteristics. Moreover, DISH says that many of its subscribers’ mobile devices are already 800 MHz-enabled. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that DISH may not be able to come up with the money to buy that 800 MHz spectrum. DISH claims that it has already invested $1 billion in its network to make it 800 MHz ready. The inability to buy that spectrum would mean that investment is lost. Furthermore, DISH says that executives from both companies are still talking and that both parties have an interest in achieving an equitable arrangement.
In a recent filing with the U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia, DISH requested a 10-month extension, to June 2024, to raise the money to complete the purchase. It cited COVID-19, high interest rates, supply chain shortages, inflation, and the Ukraine war as reasons why it needed more time. DISH faces a $72 million penalty if the transaction does not close. As part of the DoJ agreement, T-Mobile could sell, then lease back, part of the 800 MHz spectrum, as needed, until 2025, following the closing of this deal.
The recently announced DISH-EchoStar combination could give the company some financial leverage, but that deal is not expected to close before the end of the year, Inside Towers reported. The company also could monetize some of the $30 billion worth of spectrum it owns directly and indirectly. But it is not allowed to sell any of that spectrum before 2025. Any spectrum securitization options are still to be determined.
If DISH can’t close the deal by the end of August and if it doesn’t receive the DoJ’s 10 month extension approval, things could get ugly. Without the 800 MHz spectrum, DISH may not be able to meet its 75 percent PEA coverage bogey by mid-2025. The company says it reached its 70 percent population coverage with around 16,000 cell sites. These sites were deployed in the top 35-40 markets, mainly so-called NFL cities and their environs.
Covering a majority of the next 100 million people is a challenge involving a lot more cell sites in Tier 2/3 and rural markets, as T-Mobile pointed out in its 2Q23 earnings call, Inside Towers reported. If DISH can’t meet that requirement, it could face significant financial penalties along with spectrum license forfeitures. Under those circumstances, the company’s ultimate survival could be in peril, with few outs.
Investors are not showing a lot of confidence in DISH’s progress. Since the beginning of the year, the company’s stock price has dropped by more than half from $14.10 on January 3, to $6.41 at the market close yesterday.
By John Celentano, Inside Towers Business Editor
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