UPDATE New Street Research (NSR) believes the approach suggested by the White House and NTIA in the National Spectrum Strategy represents progress for a range of stakeholders but particularly for wireless providers using exclusive spectrum licenses. Inside Towers reported the Administration identified 2,786 MHz of spectrum for potential reallocation to commercial uses.
It also specified a process for studying and deciding on what bands to reallocate and another for resolving disputes between agencies. A Presidential Memo described to executive agencies steps they should take to implement the strategy.
“While spectrum is thought of as being material only to those offering services based on exclusive spectrum licenses (T, VZ, TMUS, DISH), it also affects those relying on shared or unlicensed (CHTR, CMSCA), as well as those relying on specific bands to be able to offer new services (such as GOOG, META, APPL and MSFT),” notes NRS Policy Advisor Blair Levin. Overall, rather than thinking of the documents as a touchdown, they should be regarded as “moving the ball from one’s own 20-yard line to the opponents’ 40.”
NTIA had said it would put at least 1,500 MHz on the table to be studied. It proposed 2,786 MHz, including upper mid-band spectrum in the 3 GHz and 5 GHz range, as well as high-band spectrum in the 7 GHz-8 GHz range, the 18 GHz band, and the 37 GHz band.
The big takeaway: “All commercial spectrum users now have a better idea of the process and have an opportunity to capitalize on a plan that, at its core, is designed to reallocate spectrum from the government sector to private sector uses,” writes Levin. He notes that NTIA wants more spectrum to be studied than anticipated. By doing this, the Administration “creates a favorable environment for commercial wireless interests,” explains Levin.
The process seems designed to air agency differences early and clearly, which NSR sees as an effort, likely to be welcomed by the commercial interests, to avoid the “FAA fiasco that accompanied the C-band process.” NSR sees the study period as taking “several years.” Auction planning would add another couple of years to the rough schedule. It anticipates the next big spectrum auction would occur “no earlier than the back half of the next Administration (2027-28).”
NSR believes the approach is likely to survive whatever happens in the 2024 Presidential election. “The politics here are more about the wireless industry v. the Department of Defense than Republicans v. Democrats,” Levin explains.
By Leslie Stimson, Inside Towers Washington Bureau Chief
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