As the stock market reacts to President Trump’s new tariff framework, Trump has predicted Elon Musk will leave his government work in the coming weeks and go back to running his businesses. New Street Research (NSR) Policy Advisor Blair Levin wonders if that means Musk’s telecom policy impact will weaken.
NSR previously stated that with his satellite companies, Musik had “incentives at odds with the incentives of the traditional major forces in telecom policy.” Levin notes in a client report that “Republicans want to retain Musk’s money and platform for their political campaigns.”
How he leaves is most likely to go three ways, according to the policy expert. Musk can just leave and continue to support the party with his money and platform. Musk could also leave and step away from politics. The third possibility is the separation could turn ugly.
Concerning BEAD, Musk leaving makes it a little “easier for the Commerce Department to let the states that have completed, or are near completing, their bidding process, to simply continue without putting what Republicans regard as problematic conditions into the contracts with the ISPs, something both the states and ISPs would welcome,” says Levin. That would result in Starlink not gaining a material amount of federal funding. “It would also result in the wireline companies most active in bidding for BEAD funding (which includes CHTR, T, and VZ/FBYR) obtaining the grants they have previously won, or will win, the states that have not yet completed their bidding,” he writes.
But, NSR continues to hear Commerce Secretary Lutnick and his team are “still looking at how to force the states to rebid and increase the percentage of funds going to satellite.”
Some spectrum issues the FCC and Congress need to address over the next several years involve SpaceX/Starlink pitted against the wireless industry while others pit SpaceX/Starlink against individual companies, like DISH or Globalstar. According to the policy expert, NSR believes “SpaceX/Starlink are likely to continue to have significant influence at the FCC, and Musk ending his DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] efforts is unlikely to change that.” Unless the separation gets ugly, Musk’s “influence is likely to diminish, which would be especially beneficial to wireless carriers (T, VZ and TMUS).”
Bottom line, Musk leaving on good terms is most likely, according to Levin. But if the relationship goes bad, “the BEAD issue will already be resolved, but it could significantly affect some spectrum issues down the road,” Levin writes.
By Leslie Stimson, Inside Towers Washington Bureau Chief
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