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Results for 3Q24 turned in by the U.S. mobile networks operators make clear that carrier-based 5G fixed wireless access continues to be well-received in the market. The base of FWA subscribers is growing every quarter, reaching a cumulative tally of more than 10.8 million subscribers at the end of the third quarter. The total will reach roughly 11.5 million subs by year-end 2024 at current run rates.
T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) led the pack with over six million high speed internet subscribers. Verizon (NYSE: VZ) topped four million, and trumpeted in its 3Q earnings call that it exceeded its previously stated goal of 4-5 million FWA subscribers by the end of 2025, by 15 months. AT&T (NYSE: T) reached nearly half a million subs from a standing start in mid-2023. UScellular (NYSE: USM) continued to make steady gains in its predominantly Tier 2/3 and rural markets, reaching 140,000 subscribers at the end of the quarter, Inside Towers reported.
On the strength of its performance to date, both T-Mobile and Verizon upped their outlook for FWA growth over the next three years. T-Mobile had originally set a goal of reaching 7-8 million FWA subscribers by the end of 2025. The company stated in its Capital Markets Day conference in September, that it now expects to reach 12 million FWA subscribers by the end of 2028.
Verizon was similarly enthusiastic with its 3Q24 results. The company revised its outlook to double its current FWA base to 8-9 million by the end of 2028.
AT&T made clear it is focused on expanding its mobile and fiber-based services and is not following a similar FWA marketing strategy as either T-Mobile or Verizon. Despite its rapid run up since launching the service in mid-2023, AT&T is taking a very strategic approach with FWA, deploying it to provide broadband connectivity ahead of fiber deployments or as a substitute broadband offer where it does not expect to extend its fiber network.
UScellular is deploying FWA as a broadband offering in parts of its territory where neither fiber nor cable is available. FWA deployments likely will continue to be a point of strategic emphasis after the company’s acquisition by T-Mobile closes.
With the revised guidance, our chart shows that cumulative FWA subscribers will nearly double at a 15 percent CAGR to 22-23 million by 2028.
The chart shows FWA revenues as midpoint averages that make allowances for ARPU adjustments, bundled service offers and competitive response. Aggregate revenues are projected to reach nearly $11 billion at the end of 2028, growing at a 10 percent CAGR from 2024 to 2028.
Understand that carrier-based FWA differs from facilities-based FWA provided by wireless internet service providers which typically operate on unlicensed frequencies or CBRS. Carrier-based FWA uses a portion of its 5G mobile mid-band spectrum such as 2.5 GHz with T-Mobile and C-band with Verizon, AT&T and UScellular.
It’s important to note that 5G FWA performance can vary based on factors such as network congestion, signal strength, and geographic location. However, the consistent performance of T-Mobile and Verizon’s FWA services indicates a viable alternative for broadband connectivity, especially in areas where traditional wired – fiber or cable – options are limited.
By John Celentano, Inside Towers Business Editor
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